Two months after moving back to Britain, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are facing a blunt new prediction from a royal commentator: their homecoming has failed, and a return to California is looking likely. Royal reporter Mark Dolan said on The Daily Beast’s Royalist Podcast that the couple’s UK move has been “a complete disaster” and that they would probably head back to the United States “with their tails between their legs”.
The claim landed on November 10–11, 2026, just as the couple was dealing with a separate family crisis in Brussels. It also capped a difficult stretch that has included a painful opinion poll, a job title change for Harry, a court loss, and a security fight that refuses to go quiet.
The Prediction That Put the Sussex Brand on Notice
Dolan did not soften his words. Speaking to host Tom Sykes, he questioned whether the couple still holds the public affection it once did and suggested their professional brand may have run its course.
“I think that the Sussex brand is in deep, deep trouble,” Dolan said. “People are not as fond of Harry as they used to be back in the day. What’s Meghan’s approval rating? Just a few notches above Andrew. I really think, for their own reasons, both Harry and Megan, the Sussex brand is—I think it’s not just in decline, I think it’s over.”
Dolan argued that the couple returned to Britain hoping to repair ties with the royal family and rebuild their careers after six years in the US. Neither goal, in his view, has worked out.
“It’s highly likely, and I think they would go back to the United States with their tails between their legs,” he said. “I just think that it’s been such a damp squib, their U.K. return. The money doesn’t seem to be coming in.”
He also pointed to a practical clue: the couple has not sold their $14.65 million estate in Montecito, California. For Dolan, that suggests a return to the US within about a year is “the most likely outcome”. It is worth noting clearly that this is one commentator’s prediction, not a confirmed plan. Harry and Meghan have not announced any move back to California.
A Homecoming That Never Found Its Footing
Harry, Meghan, and their two children—Archie, 7, and Lilibet, 5—moved back to the UK in late August 2026 after six years in California. The family settled in the Cotswolds, staying on the estate of a wealthy businessman friend, and later moved into a separate property on the same estate.
The children were enrolled in UK schools, and the couple kept their Montecito mansion, which staff continued to maintain.
The move came with heavy expectations attached. Supporters hoped it would allow Harry to spend more time with King Charles III, who was diagnosed with cancer in 2024, and give the children a chance to know their British family. Critics questioned the timing and the motives from the start.
Public opinion was not warm. A YouGov poll published in September 2026 found that only 16% of Britons wanted Harry and Meghan to return as working members of the royal family. A majority of 51% opposed the idea, while 33% said they did not know.
UK broadcaster Richard Madeley wrote in the Daily Express that “barely 16% of respondents want to see the couple living back here” and that “almost 85% gave the idea the thumbs-down”. The numbers set a cold tone for a homecoming that was already under scrutiny.
Career Setbacks That Made Headlines
The professional picture has not been kind either. On November 6, 2026, BetterUp CEO Alexi Robichaux announced that Harry was stepping down from his role as Chief Impact Officer at the Silicon Valley coaching and mental health company. Harry’s title changed to senior adviser after five years in the job, which reportedly paid around $1 million a year.
The change was framed as a shift in responsibilities, but it arrived less than three months after the couple’s UK move and was widely read as a downgrade.
Harry also lost a major legal fight earlier in the year. On July 7, 2026, the High Court in London dismissed his privacy case against Associated Newspapers Limited, the publisher of the Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday. Harry and six other claimants had alleged unlawful information gathering. The judge dismissed the claims, and the publisher called the ruling an “overwhelming victory”.
For a couple whose public story has often centred on their relationship with the British press, the loss landed hard.
A Family Crisis Meghan Could Not Step Around
Trigger warning: This section mentions allegations of child sxual abuse material.*
A separate and far more serious situation unfolded around Meghan’s estranged father, Thomas Markle Sr. On Friday, November 6, 2026, the 82-year-old was arrested in Florida on a federal charge of possessing child s*xual abuse material. Authorities said the material was found in storage units in California, and a US judge later ordered a psychiatric examination. Thomas Markle has denied wrongdoing.
Meghan released a statement saying she was “deeply distressed” by the allegations and that her thoughts were “with any children who may have been harmed”. She also said she had known about the claims since 2018.
The timing collided with a scheduled public appearance. Harry and Meghan were due to attend the opening of the Lost Screen Memorial at the European Parliament in Brussels on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Meghan had been expected to give introductory remarks about creating a safer digital world for children. She pulled out of the speech, with reports saying she did not feel “strong enough” to speak.
She still attended the event alongside Harry, marking her first public appearance since her father’s arrest. Harry delivered a solo speech calling for stronger safeguards against online harm to children and said children “deserve to feel safe wherever they are”. The couple was photographed holding hands, but Meghan did not address the allegations publicly at the event.
The Security Fight That Will Not Settle
Security has been the most persistent source of friction since the move was announced. Harry and Meghan lost taxpayer-funded police protection when they stepped back from royal duties in 2020. Since then, an independent committee has assessed their eligibility for protection on a case-by-case basis during UK visits.
Harry has fought that decision in court and lost. A request for royal protection during a UK visit in July 2026 was rejected. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said in August 2026 that the family’s security arrangements were “a private matter”.
The argument has spilled into public commentary. Royal biographer Angela Levin accused the couple of using their children and a possible departure from Britain as leverage in the security review, calling it “blackmail”. A friend of Harry’s was reported as saying that if he does not get the security he wants, “he will go back to Montecito for good”.
The couple’s spokesperson said a school move for the children followed discussions with their security team about “the practicalities of their current arrangements”.
A Warmer Moment in Nottingham
Not everything has gone badly. In mid-October 2026, Harry and Meghan visited Nottingham for three public engagements, including a stop at the Community Recording Studio in St Ann’s. Crowds turned out with flowers, photographs, and selfie requests.
The Times royal editor Roya Nikkhah said on The Royals with Roya and Kate podcast that the couple was “very warmly received” and was “quite surprised” and “quite emotional” because they had not expected anyone to turn out.
Meghan was heard telling one well-wisher, “Oh, it’s great to be back”. The visit was not an official royal engagement. A letter authorised by the King had clarified that the Sussexes remain “private citizens”.
The moment showed that the couple can still draw a crowd. It also underlined how unusual their position is: popular with some, rejected by others, and caught between a private life and a public role they no longer hold.
What the Couple Has Actually Said and Done
Harry and Meghan have not responded publicly to Dolan’s prediction. Their organisation, Archewell, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Daily Beast.
What is confirmed is that they still own the Montecito property, they have not listed it for sale or rent, and staff are still maintaining it. They are living in the Cotswolds, and their children are in UK schools.
Reports about Christmas have been mixed. Some outlets said the couple planned to spend the holidays in the UK; others said they would travel to California to be with Meghan’s mother, Doria Ragland. No final plan has been confirmed by the couple.
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The prediction from Dolan is exactly that—a prediction. It is not a statement of fact, and the couple has given no signal that a move is imminent. But the combination of polling, career changes, legal setbacks, a family crisis, and an unresolved security dispute has given the “tails between their legs” narrative more material than at any point since they arrived.
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