The 98th Academy Awards are set to take place on March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, with Conan O’Brien returning as host . After a long awards season filled with critics’ prizes, Golden Globes, and key guild awards, the race for the golden statuettes is finally coming into focus. While a few categories appear locked, others remain too close to call right up until the envelope is opened. Here is a clear look at the frontrunners and the races to watch based on the latest verified results from every major precursor.
Best Picture: Is “One Battle After Another” Unbeatable?
The biggest category of the night appears to have a clear favorite. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has dominated the season in a way that is hard to ignore. The film earned 13 nominations and, more importantly, swept the major industry prizes . It took home the top honor from the Producers Guild of America (PGA), which has matched the Oscar winner for every best picture winner in the 2020s so far .
Standing in its way is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” The vampire drama made history by scoring 16 nominations, the most of any film this year and enough to break the previous record of 14 . It also won the Cast in a Motion Picture award at the Actors Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), which injected a dose of volatility into the race . However, the Actor Award is historically only a 53% match for best picture over the last 31 years .
Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” boasts the emotional depth that often sways voters, but its path is complicated by a lack of an editing nomination. Only 10 movies in history have won best picture without one . Looking at the betting markets, “One Battle After Another” is listed at -500, meaning it is a massive favorite, while “Sinners” follows at +350 . Given the PGA win and the sheer weight of its season-long dominance, “One Battle After Another” is the one to beat.
Best Director: The Long-Awaited Coronation of PTA
If there is one award that feels like a formality this year, it is Best Director. Paul Thomas Anderson, an 11-time nominee without a win in any category, is widely expected to finally take home his first Oscar for “One Battle After Another” . He has rampaged through awards season, picking up the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award, which has matched the Oscar winner 85% of the time since the year 2000 .
While Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”) and Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”) are the main rivals, the narrative of giving the award to an overdue auteur is simply too strong to ignore . Betting odds reflect this, with some books listing Anderson at an astonishing -1,500 to win .
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley’s Year
This category belongs to Jessie Buckley. For her gobsmacking, gut-wrenching performance as a grieving mother in “Hamnet,” Buckley has won virtually every major award leading up to the Oscars, including the Golden Globe (drama) and the Actor Award . Experts and panelists from the Los Angeles Times have been unanimous in their praise, calling her work a “powerhouse, sob-inducing turn” .
Her closest competition comes from Rose Byrne for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” who won the Golden Globe in the musical or comedy category . But the gap between the two is immense in the betting markets. Covers.com gives Buckley a 96% chance to win, with odds at a jaw-dropping -4,000, making her the “surest thing” of the night .
Best Actor: The Race That Became Chaos
What was once a two-man race between Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”) turned into a free-for-all after the Actors Awards. In a surprise move, Michael B. Jordan won the Actor Award for his dual role in “Sinners,” immediately shaking up the race .
Chalamet remains a strong contender. At 30 years old, he would become the second-youngest best actor winner ever, and he already has Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins under his belt . Jordan’s momentum, however, is real. He leapfrogged DiCaprio in betting odds after the SAG win, with Covers.com showing Chalamet at a 50% chance and Jordan close behind at 40% . Given that SAG has matched the Oscar winner 18 out of the last 21 years, Jordan’s victory there makes this a true toss-up.
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Best Supporting Actor: The Veterans’ Battle
Stellan Skarsgård has long held a narrow lead for his wistful turn in the Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value” . It is a career-first nomination for the respected veteran, and the academy often likes to honor such achievements . However, Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”) threw a wrench in the works by taking both the BAFTA and the Actor Award, making him the new favorite among bettors .
SAG has matched this Oscar category 16 out of the last 18 years, which strongly favors Penn . Yet, with Benicio del Toro also in the mix for the same film, there is a real chance of a vote split. Many analysts predict that if Penn and del Toro divide the “One Battle” vote, Skarsgård could emerge the winner despite the SAG snub .
Best Supporting Actress: The Closest Race of the Night
If you are looking for a true nail-biter, this is it. Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) have been locked in a dead heat all season . Taylor won the Golden Globe, while Madigan took the Critics Choice Award and, most recently, the Actor Award . Because SAG has matched the Oscar winner in this category 15 of the last 16 years, Madigan’s victory there gives her a razor-thin edge .
However, betting markets have it as a coin flip, with Madigan at +150 and Taylor at +170 . The memorable and explosive nature of Taylor’s performance—playing a conflicted mother and revolutionary—lingers in voters’ minds, even if her screen time is limited . Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) is also a formidable contender, but this two-woman race will likely come down to whether the academy rewards a horror performance (Madigan) or the flashier role (Taylor).
Technical Categories and Historic Firsts
While the acting races grab the headlines, “Sinners” is poised for a big night in the technical fields. It is the frontrunner for Best Original Score thanks to Ludwig Göransson’s haunted, bluesy soundtrack, and it is a major contender in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design . If cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw wins, she would be the first woman to ever take home that award .
In the new category of Best Achievement in Casting, “Sinners” is also expected to be a strong contender, alongside “One Battle After Another” and “Sentimental Value” . For Best Original Song, Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” and its hit single “Golden” is viewed as the safest bet of the entire night .
Predicted winners for other categories at the Oscar 2026 Awards
- Best Cinematography: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
- Best International Feature: Sirât
- Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
- Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
- Best Adapted Screenplay: Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet
- Best Film Editing: Stephen Mirrione, F1 OR Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
- Best Casting: Francine Maisler, Sinners
- Best Original Song: “Golden,” by KPop Demon Hunters (EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon, Teddy Park)
- Best Production Design: Shan Vieau, Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Jordan Samuel, Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
- Best Costume Design: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
- Best Animated Short: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
- Best Original Score: Max Richter, Hamnet OR Ludwig Goransson, Sinners
- Best Visual Effects: Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean, Sinners
- Best Sound: Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Al Nelson, Gareth John, Gary A. Rizzo, Juan Peralta, F1
- Best Documentary Short: The Devil Is Busy
The 98th Oscars will air live on ABC on Sunday, March 15, broadcasting from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood .
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