Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson claimed in a lengthy post on X late Sunday that the Trump administration may be “within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran,” naming Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran as the likely target. The White House quickly rejected the claim, saying Carlson “has no insight into military planning or the Commander-in-Chief’s thinking.”
Carlson, a former Fox News host who has become one of the most vocal critics of the Iran war within conservative media, alleged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing President Donald Trump to authorize the strike. Carlson cited an unnamed “informed observer” who claimed Netanyahu calls Trump about the matter “every day.” He offered no documents or named sources to support the assertion.
The post, published just two days before the November 3 US midterm elections, drew tens of millions of views and sparked reactions across the political spectrum. Carlson wrote that Trump could decide by November 7 whether to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
What Carlson Said About Pickaxe Mountain
Carlson’s post focused on Pickaxe Mountain, also known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, a deeply buried underground complex located roughly 2 kilometers south of Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. The site is believed to sit beneath an estimated 300 feet of solid granite, making it highly resistant to conventional bunker-buster bombs.
“No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place,” Carlson wrote. “The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one.”
Carlson also alleged that Netanyahu’s political survival is driving the push for military action. Following Israel’s recent parliamentary election, Carlson claimed Netanyahu’s bloc failed to secure a 61-seat Knesset majority, leaving him “cornered and desperate” and in need of the war to stay in power.
The commentator further claimed that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe were either being pressured by Netanyahu or following his lead. He provided no evidence for these allegations.
The Human and Environmental Warning
Carlson warned that a nuclear explosion at Pickaxe Mountain could contaminate the Persian Gulf and threaten the water supply of around 100 million people. He also claimed that 11 of the world’s approximately 850 oil supertankers had been badly damaged in the Strait of Hormuz in October alone, and that eight months of conflict had severely affected Gulf economies and global energy markets.
“After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable,” Carlson wrote. “That war would be short and final.”
He argued that a US nuclear strike would set a precedent that could encourage Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, escalate tensions between India and Pakistan, and prompt North Korea to attack Seoul. Carlson also alleged that the administration had quietly revised US nuclear doctrine since February to make the first use of “battlefield nukes” easier.
White House Pushes Back
The White House dismissed Carlson’s claims on Monday afternoon. A White House official told multiple outlets that President Trump “has a wide range of options available regarding Iran, and he will do what is right to keep the American people safe.”
“Tucker Carlson lost his way long ago due to a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, and he has no insight into military planning or the Commander-in-Chief’s thinking,” the official added.
The statement followed Trump’s own public comments ruling out nuclear weapons. In an October 15 interview with Newsmax, Trump said plainly: “No, I wouldn’t use nuclear. We don’t have to. We’re the greatest nuclear power in the world.” He stressed that the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast — known as the “mother of all bombs” — is a conventional weapon, not a nuclear one.
At a campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday, Trump told supporters: “The only reason why I’m not finished with Iran is I want to be nice. I want to try and save all those lives if I can… But at some point we’re going to have to give them the hammer.”
Speaking to reporters, Trump said the US still had to “take care of” one or two targets and specifically mentioned Pickaxe Mountain, saying the US could strike it “within 10 minutes.” He did not indicate that a nuclear strike had been authorized.
A Candid Call With Netanyahu
Trump confirmed on Sunday that he had spoken with Netanyahu by phone on Saturday, October 31. He described the conversation as “a good call” and said they discussed Iran, though he did not share specifics.
Reports citing U.S. and Israeli sources described the discussion as “candid” and at times “tense.” According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, Netanyahu urged Trump to resume military action against Iran soon after the midterm elections, while Trump preferred to let diplomacy play out. An Israeli source characterized the discussion as “tough,” while a US source called it “frank.”
The call came shortly after Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, about the possibility of restarting formal negotiations. Qatar has been mediating talks with Iranian representatives. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said no agreement had been reached and that Tehran was still waiting for a US response on pending issues.
What Is Pickaxe Mountain?
Pickaxe Mountain has become a focal point in the eight-month war that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Construction of the underground facility began around 2020, when Iran’s atomic energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi announced plans for a modern site near Natanz. Tehran said it would be used for assembling advanced centrifuges.
The facility has so far escaped direct strikes, unlike Natanz, Fordow, and other nuclear-linked sites hit during US and Israeli operations. A September analysis by CSIS based on satellite imagery found increased construction activity around the site, including reinforced tunnel entrances and improved internal roads. Researchers said the imagery could neither confirm nor disprove claims that centrifuges had been moved there, and suggested the facility might not yet be ready for uranium enrichment.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has sought access to the site, but its exact contents and operational status remain unclear. Iran has denied that any nuclear activity is being carried out there.
Mixed Reactions From Analysts and Commentators
Carlson’s claim drew attention from figures on both sides of the political divide. CNN’s chief international anchor Christiane Amanpour reacted to the post, while prominent Trump critic and attorney George Conway said the move would “not be surprising in the least” and urged followers to “not discount” Carlson’s claims. The Bulwark’s Tim Miller acknowledged Carlson’s controversial reputation but warned against dismissing his access to administration insiders.
Others were far more skeptical. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, said a US nuclear strike on Iran is “not a serious possibility,” describing the idea as “beyond the pale” and arguing it would be unacceptable to Trump’s advisers and severely damage America’s global standing. He said any future US military action would likely remain limited and conventional.
Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, told The War Zone: “Is it likely? No. But it is possible that an unstable, desperate president who has sole authority to authorize nuclear weapons use, would do so, yes.” Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, also said he considers it unlikely.
Alan Cafruny, a professor of international affairs at Hamilton College, said Carlson “has limited credibility and provides no specific evidence for his warning,” though he noted that Trump and Pentagon leaders are unpredictable and the warning should still be taken seriously. Cafruny also pointed out that military analysts believe conventional bombing could destroy the site, and that there is no hard evidence Iran is enriching uranium under Pickaxe Mountain.
Carlson’s Break With Trump Over the War
Carlson’s latest post is part of a broader rupture with the president he once supported. In an April interview with The Wall Street Journal, Carlson said he felt “betrayed” by Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. “I don’t hate Trump. I hate this war and the direction that the US government is taking,” he said. “I feel betrayed.”
He has since become what the Journal described as “the most prominent opponent of the Iran war” and has repeatedly warned that the US was moving toward the use of nuclear weapons. On an April 1 broadcast, he said: “We’re moving toward the use of weapons of indiscriminate mass destruction, possible nuclear weapons. Everything hangs in the balance right now. This is not hysteria.”
Carlson’s shift reflects a wider split within the MAGA movement over the Iran conflict. Figures including Megyn Kelly, Alex Jones, and Candace Owens have publicly criticized Trump’s handling of the war, questioning his departure from an “America First” agenda. A Brookings Institution fellow, Darrell West, told Xinhua that these defections pose a political problem for Trump because the criticism comes from former supporters rather than traditional opponents.
US Strikes Qeshm Island
Carlson’s post came one day before the US carried out what officials described as “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, November 2. The strikes were described as limited and not a resumption of major combat operations, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by multiple outlets. The action followed Iran’s shooting down of a US aircraft.
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Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, warned on X over the weekend that any attack would bring “devastating blows on the aggressor using new weapons.” Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran should meet “any level or type of threat” with “an immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response.”
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